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Chapter 2:
Interpreting Power: A Levels-of-Analysis Approach
Chapter Outline
Defining Power in Global Politics
Characteristics
of Power
The Levels-of-Analysis Approach
Origins
and Applicability
Individual-Level Analysis
Human
Rationality and Its Limits
Cognitive
Factors
Psychological
Factors
Sex
and Gender
Leadership
State-Level Analysis
Governmental
Sources
Societal
Factors
System-Level Analysis
Structural
Characteristics
Power
Relationships
Critical Thinking Questions
Chapter Summary
Chapter Objectives
After
reading this chapter, students should be able to:
Chapter Glossary
Anarchy A
fundamental concept in the study of global politics derived from the insights
of Thomas Hobbes regarding the “state of nature,” which contends that global
politics is best understood as a self-help struggle for survival between and
among states and other actors given the lack of any effective overarching central
governing authority in the system.
Autarky/autarkic
state A
completely or nearly completely inwardly directed society with little or no
connections to the outside world.
Authoritarian A government that
centralizes and exercises power and administers society with little or no input
from or participation by the governed.
Balance
of power A
concept that describes the degree of equilibrium (balance) or disequilibrium
(imbalance) of power in the global or regional system.
Behavioralism The study of social and
political phenomena using the scientific method – including, but not limited
to, hypothesis testing and empirical analysis.
Bipolar
system/bipolarity
A type of international system with two roughly equal actors or
coalitions of actors that divide the international system into two “poles” of
power centers.
Bloc Grouping of materially
interdependent and (often) ideologically aligned states.
Bounded
rationality
A concept that suggests the rational choices of individuals are bound or
limited by time pressures, imperfect information, and biases that influence
those choices.
Bureaucracy The bulk of the state’s
administrative structure that continues even when political leaders change.
Capabilities In global politics, the
power and influence available to an actor as a Function of its tangible power
assets.
Cognitive
consistency
The tendency of individuals to hold fast to prevailing views of the
world, and to discount contradictory ideas and information in the process.
Cognitive
dissonance A
discordant psychological state in which an individual attempts to process
information contradicting her or his prevailing understanding of a subject.
Cold
War The
confrontation that emerged following World War II between the bipolar
superpowers, the Soviet Union and the United States . Although no direct
conflict took place between these countries, it was an era of great tensions
and global division.
Complex
interdependence A term most associated with the liberal theorists Robert Keohane and
Joseph Nye referring to the broad and deep interdependence of issues and actors
in the contemporary global political system, and the ways in which this
condition structures and conditions the conduct of global politics.
Concert
of Europe A
multipolar arrangement prevailing in Europe
through much of the 19th century in which the major powers committed
to a loose agreement to avoid war with one another while policing disorder and
outbreaks of violence with and among smaller actors in the region.
Credibility The power and influence
available to an actor as a function of its ability and willingness to follow
through on commitments and threats.
Democratic A form of
government established on the premise that the consent of the governed is
necessary to the exercise of power and administration of society – and that the
governed have obligations to participate in the political system.
Frustration-aggression
theory A
psychologically based theory that frustrated societies sometimes become
collectively aggressive.
Fundamental
attribution error (correspondence bias) Overrating personality and disposition and
underrating situational or contextual factors when explaining the observed
behavior of others—and doing the exact opposite in seeking to understand one’s
own behavior.
Fungible An economic term referring
to the degree of convertibility of currency or other economic assets into a
desired good or service.
Gender
opinion gap
The difference between males and females along any one of a number of
dimensions, including foreign policy preferences.
Hard
power The
use or threatened use of material power assets by an actor to compel one or
more other actors to undertake a desired action, or not undertake an
undesirable one. Hard power relies on coercion
Hegemony Systemic
arrangement in which one predominant actor possesses both the material
capabilities and political will to introduce, follow, and enforce a given set
of rules to lend order and structure to the global system. Also requires
“buy-in” from at least some other actors who stand to benefit from those rules.
Heuristic
devices A
range of psychological strategies that allow individuals to simplify complex
decisions.
Human
development An
approach to international development emphasizing the functioning and
capabilities of individuals as an improved means for assessing a society’s
overall development.
Idiosyncratic
analysis An
individual-level analysis approach to decision making that assumes individuals
make foreign policy decisions and that different individuals are likely to make
different decisions.
Individual-level
analysis An
analytical approach that emphasizes the role of individuals as either distinct
personalities or biological/psychological beings.
Levels
of analysis
A social scientific approach to the study of global politics that
analyzes phenomena from different perspectives (system, state, individual).
Multipolar
system/multipolarity A world political system in which power is
primarily held by four or more international actors.
Munich
analogy A
prevailing belief among many post-World War II leaders that appeasement must be
avoided at all costs—a “lesson” derived from the concessions made to Hitler by
Britain and France at Munich in 1938.
Norms Unwritten rules, principles,
or standards of behavior that create expectations about how states and
individuals ought to behave and interact in the global community.
Operational
code How an
individual acts in a given situation, based on a combination of one’s
understanding of the nature of politics and fundamental worldview.
Optimistic
bias The
psychological tendency of individuals—particularly those in positions of power
– to overrate their own potential for success, and underrate their own
potential for failure.
Overstretch A concept developed by
historians that suggests a recurring tendency of powerful actors to overextend
themselves by taking on costly foreign policy commitments that deplete their
finances and generate domestic discord.
Polarity The number of predominantly
powerful actors in the global system at any given point in time.
Political
culture A
society’s general and fundamental practices and attitudes toward governance and
policy, based on historical experience and the values of citizens.
Population
aging A
scenario in which a large and increasing proportion of a given society is
approaching or at an age in which active participation in public and private
life is unlikely
Rally
effect The
tendency during a crisis of political and other leaders, legislators, and the
public to give strong support to a chief executive and the policy that leader
has adopted in response to the crisis.
Rational
actors The
assumption that individuals are prone to make informed and self-serving choices
based on a careful accumulation and weighting of all relevant information.
Regime
type The
type of government prevailing in a given society.
Rogue
state States
that are perceived to be in noncompliance with the majority of prevailing
rules, norms, and laws in the global system and therefore constitute a threat
to order. This may mean, among other things, a state governed by authoritarian
rule that severely restricts human rights, sponsors or condones terrorism, or
seeks to obtain or promote the spread of weapons of mass destruction.
Salience/salient In public opinion
research, the issues or questions that are more meaningful and significant (or
“matter” more) to a greater proportion of people.
Soft
power The
use or prospective use of material or ideational power assets by an actor to
induce another actor or actors to undertake a desired action, or not undertake
an undesirable one. Soft power relies on persuasion.
State-level
analysis An
analytical approach that emphasizes the actions of states and the internal
(domestic) causes of their policies.
State
sovereignty A
central tenet of global politics that holds that the state has the sole right
to govern its territory and people, free from outside interference.
Statecraft The use of
military, economic, diplomatic, and ideational tools in the pursuit of clearly
defined foreign policy interests and objectives.
System-level
analysis An
analytical approach that emphasizes the importance of the impact of world
conditions (economics, technology, power relationships, and so forth) on the
actions of states and other international actors.
Transaction
costs Impediments
to commercial or other cooperative ventures stemming from a lack of trust
between and among involved parties rooted in concerns about the enforceability
of agreements.
Transnational Social, political, economic,
and cultural activities and processes that transcend and permeate the borders
and authority of states.
Treaty
of Westphalia The treaty ending the Thirty Years’ War
(1618-1648), giving rise to the modern state-based system.
Unipolar
system/unipolarity
A type of international system that describes a single country with
complete global hegemony or preponderant power.
Chapter Overview and Sample Lecture Outline
This lecture provides students with the content
background needed to achieve the chapter objectives. The objectives numbers
link the outline to the objective, and these topics require detailed
information.
I. Defining Power in Global Politics (Objectives 1, 4)
A. Characteristics of Power
1. Power as Asset and Aspiration
2. Hard and Soft Power
3. Absolute and Relative Power
4. Capabilities and Credibility
5. Objective and Subjective Power
6. Situational Power
II. The Levels-of-Analysis Approach (Objectives 2, 3)
A. Origins and Applicability
III. Individual-Level Analysis (Objectives 3, 4, 5)
A. Human Rationality and Its Limits
1. Human Rationality and Its Limits
a. Bounded Rationality
B. Cognitive Factors
1. Cognitive Consistency
2. Optimistic Bias
3. Heuristic Devices
C. Psychological Factors
1. Perception
and Misperception
D. Sex and Gender
1. Problematizing Gender
E. Leadership
1. Personality
2. Ego and Ambition
3. Worldview and Operational Code
IV. State-Level Analysis (Objectives 3, 4, 5)
A. Governmental Sources
1. State Sovereignty
2. Governmental Authority
3. Military Capabilities
4. Economic Capacity
B. Societal Factors
1. Political Culture
2. Technological Sophistication
3. Geography
4. Demographics
5. Human Development
V. System-Level Analysis (Objectives 3, 4, 5)
A. Structural Characteristics
1. The Organization of Authority
2. Interdependence
B. Power Relationships
1. Polarity
2. Hegemony
3. Social Context
VI. Chapter Summary
Classroom Analytical
Activities And Discussion Questions
Although
the following activities focus on classroom activities, they also can serve as
outside assignments with slight modifications.
1. Select a current
international crisis between two or more countries. Ask students to consider how they would
handle that situation if:
·
the
UN was a powerful world government.
·
a
regional organization such as the EU had extensive powers in that region.
·
one
of the states involved was part of an extensive alliance network.
·
the
issue was one involving an international regime such as air travel or whaling.
·
an
intergovernmental organization such as the IMF was concerned about this issue.
·
a
nongovernmental organization such as the Red Cross had significant power to address this
issue.
Debrief by
asking students what these different scenarios suggest about how different
types of actors with different amounts of power can influence international political processes.
2. Ask students to identify
the concerns that theorists who study power and power transitions at the
international level may have. Challenge them to support their positions with historical examples.
3. Select
a current international situation (for instance, a conflict between two
countries). Have students work in small groups in class to explain how they could resolve the situations using one of the
polar systems. Allow the groups to explain their solutions to the class, including defining the power status of the countries
involved, the rules for the polar system they chose, and why they chose that
polar system.
4. Ask
students to write a two-sentence description of their foreign policy views
(e.g., aggressive/passive; cooperative/uncooperative). Then set up several Risk
boards in a number of different configurations and ask students to discuss the
alliances that they would expect. Assign students to play in teams or as
individuals, but, before they begin, they must share their foreign policy
statements with the other players. Afterward, ask students to discuss how the
statements shaped their perceptions of other players and of the security
situation. Also, discuss any differences in perception that arise between
students who played in teams (democratic structures) and those who played as
individuals (authoritarian structures).
5. Challenge
students to describe the international political system of the future. Include
types of actors and their relative strength, number of poles, power distributions among them, the
norms of behavior, scope
and level of interaction, and the geographic factors that will exist.
6. In the eighteenth century,
Immanuel Kant argued that when citizens have a choice about going to war they are not likely to fight. Ask the class
if they agree with Kant. Point out to students that war was the popular
reaction in the United
States to the terrorist attacks of September
11th, and ask them whether this reaction supports or contradicts
their positions? Have students discuss whether U.S. citizens had a choice with respect to engaging in the
“war on terrorism”?
7. Ask students to consider
the claim that democracies are unsafe vehicles for foreign policy formation.
Ask what arguments they can make opposing or supporting the position. Determine
which arguments sides are most persuasive and why? Also, have the students
determine evidence that supports the arguments.
8. Although democracies seem
as likely as autocracies to be involved in international conflicts, they do
seem less likely to be at war with each other. Ask students how they account
for this pattern. Determine if they can identify examples of this pattern
operating today.
9. Encourage students to consider the ways in
which American political culture affects United States foreign policy. Have
them identify the aspects of history, its
belief system, and its attitude to the rest of the world that they believe have an impact upon the
making of United States foreign policy. Using this information, challenge
the students to predict elements of United States
foreign policy in the post–cold war era.
Assign students to follow the news during the semester and determine if any of
their predictions seem to emerge. Ad the end of the semesters, have students
discuss their findings.
10. Ask
the class to identify times they were in a group situation (for example, among
friends or in a club) where “groupthink” influenced a decision-making process.
Ask them which elements of groupthink are most apparent, and why?
11. Pose
the following question to the class: “Do you think that U.S. foreign policy would be different
if we had a woman president and most members of Congress were women?” During
class discuss, encourage the students to identify if women have innately
different values from men when it comes to foreign policy? Present the idea
that the events would force women to pursue similar that were similar to the
policies of the men if women occupied positions of power.
12. Present the fact that some scholars suggest
that the world’s situation would improve if
all inhabitants thought of themselves as citizens of the world. Ask if
they agree or disagree, and explore such questions as:
·
How might U.S. policy toward the less developed countries
be different if the U.S.
had pursued global interests rather than national interests?
·
How would most U.S.
citizens respond to this policy?
·
How would citizens in Germany , Japan ,
or France
respond if their countries pursued a similar policy?
Out-Of-Class Activities
1. Review
several sources of news media for the past month. For each international news item found,
note the name of the major
actor(s) involved, the type(s) of actor(s), the issue at hand, the actions
taken, and the outcome.
Organize your results into a table. What tentative conclusions might you draw from
analyzing this information?
How would your table be different if you used news sources from the 1930s? The 1890s? What tentative conclusions might you make
about the changing nature of actors in international politics since 1930?
Since 1890?
2. As the 1991 conflict in
the Persian Gulf demonstrates, resource
distribution can be a significant factor in international politics. Obtain a
list of materials regarded as essential for U.S. industry and defense. In a
table, list those materials, the sources of them and the percentage of U.S.
consumption from each source, the uses of that material, and our strategic reserves. (Hypothetical example:
Uranium; South Africa ,
43%; nuclear weapons and energy; 8 months.)
Using this information, identify other world regions or countries where
you expect the United States
to intervene when threatened by a hostile power. Defend your answer.
3. Select a current U.S.
foreign policy and study it. Seek to answer the following questions:
·
What
is its goal?
·
Do
you agree with the goal?
·
What
means achieved that goal?
·
Do
you agree with the means?
·
Are
they the most effective means?
·
What
are the costs and benefits of this policy and the means used to achieve them?
After reaching an
informed conclusion about U.S.
policy in this area, express your support for the current policy or try to
change it through whatever methods seem most appropriate to you.
4. Research
any contemporary international issue. Analyze and describe the situation from
the perspective of a(n)
·
Individual-level
analyst
·
State-level
analyst
·
System-level
analyst
5. Research
current research on gender behaviors related to power and violence. Apply this
research to predict the impact on international politics of increasing numbers
of women holding elected office around the world.
6. Gather
information about the personality types (e.g., active-passive, positive-negative) of world leaders. After analyzing the leaders, explain past behaviors and
predict future ones. How accurately does your analysis explain or predict?
Suggestions for Further Reading
Allison, Graham T. and
Philip Zelikow. 1999. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile
Crisis. New York :
Longman. Analyzes the Cuban missile crisis from three different perspectives. Demonstrates the importance of understanding
bureaucratic politics as an element
of decision making even during a foreign
policy crisis.
Axelrod, Robert. 1984. The Evolution of Cooperation. New York :
Basic Books. Explains how cooperation can emerge despite the pursuit of self-interested goals, applying a game theory framework to interactions among states,
businesses, and individuals.
Barber, James David. 1992. The Presidential Character, 4th ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ:
Prentice Hall. The latest of Barber’s studies of presidential behavior based
upon the use of psychological profiles.
Chan, Steve 1997. “In Search of Democratic Peace: Problems and
Promise.” Mershon International Studies Review 41(1): 59-91. A detailed review of literature and ideas
both for and against democratic peace theory.
Enloe, Cynthia. 1989. Bananas, Beaches and
Bases: Making Feminist Sense of International Politics. Berkeley
and Los Angeles : University of California
Press. Controversial interpretation that details the effects of the structural
position of women, both individually and as a group, on the international
system of diplomacy.
George, Alexander, and Juliette George. 1956. Woodrow
Wilson and Colonel House: A Personality Study. New York : J. Day. A careful study of Woodrow
Wilson and how his childhood experiences may have influenced his style of
governance and his successes and failures in office.
Gilpin, Robert. 1981. War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge , UK :
Cambridge University Press. An explication of the theory of hegemonic
stability, which argues
that the dominance of world politics by one overwhelmingly powerful state will
lead to the maintenance of international stability.
Ikenberry, G. John, ed. 1989. American Foreign Policy: Theoretical
Essays. Glenview , IL : Scott, Foresman. Edited volume with
essays presenting different approaches to understanding the forces that affect U.S.
foreign policy making
Jackson, Robert. 2000. The Global Covenant:
Human Conduct in a World of States. New York :
Oxford University Press. A comprehensive
system-level analysis of the international community that looks at the
plethora of issues that influence the system.
Janis, Irving .
1982. Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions, 2nd ed. Boston : Houghton Mifflin.
An analysis of the ways in which peer pressure within groups can distort
decision-making and produce bad or irrational results, even in foreign policy.
Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and
Misperception in International Politics. Princeton: Princeton University
Press. The author explores the patterns of divergence between perception and
reality of foreign policy decision makers.
Lenin, V. I.
1975. Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism. Moscow : Progress Publishers. Lenin builds on
the writings of Karl Marx to explain imperialism and war as an outcome of capitalist rivalry that
will incorporate all
regions of the world into one world capitalist system.
Neustadt, Richard E., and Ernest R. May. 1986. Thinking in Time: The
Uses of History for Decision Makers. New
York : The Free Press. An argument that policy makers
should make better use of historical cases to inform their decision-making, including practical suggestions on how they can
do so effectively.
Nincic, Miroslav. 1992. Democracy and Foreign Policy: The
Fallacy of Political Realism. New York : Columbia
University Press. A
comprehensive analysis of the links between the democratic form of government
and foreign policy decision-making.
Nye, Joseph S. Jr. 1993. Understanding
International Conflicts: An Introduction to Theory and History. New York : HarperCollins.
A concise, well-written, and thoughtful overview of the logic underlying the study
of conflict in world affairs, incorporating both history and theory.
Olson, Mancur. 1982. The Rise and Decline of Nations. New Haven , CT : Yale University
Press. The author argues that there is a tendency for interest groups to become entrenched in domestic
politics when there is no war or crisis; without disruption, the state becomes paralyzed and
sclerotic and ultimately loses power relative to other states.
Organski, A.F.K., and Jacek
Kugler. 1980. The War
Ledger. Chicago :
University of Chicago Press. Presents and empirically tests the “power
transition” theory that war is most likely to occur when one state is
overtaking another in power, thus explaining war as a result of changes in the
structure of the international system.
Singer, Max, and Aaron Wildavsky. 1993. The Real World Order: Zones of Peace,
Zones of Turmoil. Chatham , NJ : Chatham House. The authors
divide the world into democratic zones of
peace and nondemocratic zones of turmoil, and present an argument for
multilateral efforts to promote democratic regimes in order to broaden the realm of peace
Sklair, Leslie. 1991. The Sociology of the
Global System. Baltimore , MD :
The Johns Hopkins
Press. A sociologist analyzes the global system as a single unit in which there
exist common transnational practices that link seemingly distinctive societies.
Starr, Harvey 1992. “Democracy and War: Choice,
Learning and Security Communities” Journal of Peace Research. 29(2):
207–213. An application of rational
utility maximization theory to democratic peace.
Sylvester, Christine. 1994. Feminist Theory and International
Relations in a Postmodern Era. New York : Cambridge University Press. An interesting look at international
relations from a constructionist-feminist perspective.
Waltz, Kenneth. 1954. Man, the State, and War. New York : Columbia University
Press. A careful and well-written text on the different levels at which one can
understand and analyze
international politics.
Waltz, Kenneth. 1979. Theory
of World Politics. Reading ,
MA : Addison-Wesley. A modern
classic in which the author attempts to develop a system-level theory of
international politics based on microeconomic models of interstate behavior.
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